Euro area business cycle dating
From 1998 on they have identified recessions for the Euro Area as a whole. Our goal is to look at the business cycles in the major European economies. We will also look at the historical cycles in these countries, comparing them to the current cycle, depending on data availability. For that reason we have used a Hodrick-Prescott filter to identify the cycles in each of these countries.The H-P Filter produces some different results for individual economies and it is perfectly consistent with the CEPR view of the current cycle.Europe has not had the same tradition and it is only with the development of the European Community and the Eurozone that common comparable economic statistics have made the task easier.
Finally, the heterogeneity in the pace of recovery of individual Eurozone member countries is driven by the heterogeneity in their recessions.
The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee was created in 2002 with the objective of identifying business cycle turning points for the Euro area.
They have looked retrospectively for business cycle turning points for the 11 original members from 1970 to 1998. Our objective is to compare the business cycle in these economies, particularly the current cycle. is not part of the Euro Zone and the data availability is very different for some of the other countries.
The Eurozone expansion is continuing, albeit at a lacklustre rate, but it is creating employment at a quite rapid pace.
It is now 17 quarters into the expansion, which began with the trough in 2013Q1.